Year Two of the Rebellions: Twelve Months after the Start of the Arab Spring (Photo: AP)

In the twelve months that have passed since the overthrow of Tunisia's dictator, Ben Ali, and Egypt's head of state, Mubarak, it has become clear that the return to politics in the states of the Arab world is a complex, often bloody and above all protracted process that has just begun.

Many people spoke of the "Arab Spring". However, this term is seasonal; it creates feelings of impatience and fosters disappointment.

Experience in other regions of upheaval where authoritarian systems were forced to make way for pluralistic or democratic systems indicates that the Arab world is still in the first five minutes of the latest hour of its history. Four factors that are likely to shape the future course of events deserve attention, and in particular the attention of Europe.

The influence of socio-demographic developments

The first group of factors are socio-demographic developments. The uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and other Arab states were sustained first and foremost by 20- to 35-year-olds. Although this age group is better trained than the previous generation, it has fewer opportunities than older and younger generations.

The political upheaval in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya has done absolutely nothing to improve the social and economic conditions that caused so much suffering in this generation in particular. Moreover, the people of the "2011 generation", the revolutionary part of this generation, did not necessarily emerge as the winners of the elections that have since taken place.

For this reason, we should not be too surprised if this generation continues to challenge transition governments and newly elected authorities. In all likelihood, Europe's main task will be to help these states that are in transformation to give this generation real opportunities for work and participation. We should not overlook the fact that the progression of socio-demographic developments in the various states of the region will be similar but not simultaneous.

For example, a generation that is comparable to the "2011 generation" in Tunisia, Egypt or Syria is only now growing in Saudi Arabia; it will only reach the peak of its strength in a few years.

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By Volker Perthes; Translated by Aingeal Flanaga

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